[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"$fAeuPcOoujJNI8gjb498ZUdsCXO9xtHf33HZ300ufKF0":3},{"data":4},{"displayed_date":5,"created":6,"id":7,"audience":8,"authors":9,"content_tags":11,"enforce_gated_content":12,"meta_default_title":5,"email_capture_popup":13,"status":14,"web_url":15,"split_tested":12,"title":16,"free_content_html":17,"subject_line":16,"thumbnail_url":18,"newsletter_list_id":5,"publish_date":19,"preview_text":20,"meta_default_description":21,"subtitle":20,"hidden_from_feed":12,"platform":8,"slug":22},null,1772287774,"post_2e2ff0fd-2cdc-4707-8621-706d2b1e01b1","both",[10],"Nicholas Crown",[],false,true,"confirmed","https:\u002F\u002Fletter.nicholascrown.com\u002Fp\u002Fblack-gold-the-war-is-new-the-bid-isn-t","Black Gold: The War Is New. The Bid Isn’t.","\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> Good morning. Let’s get into it. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> Crude’s bid started well before the weekend military strikes in Iran. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> Wednesday’s tell: the EIA print showed a ~16mm bbl inventory build vs ~1.5mm expected - \u003Cb>and WTI refused to break.\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> Further, energy sector ETFs took in roughly $963M over five days, and shorts have been covering \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> From the tape, crude looks like a no-brainer buy. And when a trade looks like a no-brainer, the real risk is the exit. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> That’s exactly why you can’t be naked long. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> The tail risk is resolution in Iran: the risk premium can come out fast, and crude can gap lower. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> Now there’s an opportunity to \u003Cb>participate in the upside without letting one headline take you out.\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>","https:\u002F\u002Fbeehiiv-images-production.s3.amazonaws.com\u002Fuploads\u002Fasset\u002Ffile\u002F47815d7a-b74c-4259-b706-e6da225ea33d\u002Fcrown_macro_cover__9_.png?t=1774570129",1772449200,"The regime flipped weeks ago. This weekend made it real.","Decode the crude oil bid: ETF inflows, positioning, fair value math, and a defined-risk WTI options structure to trade oil into end-March. ","black-gold-the-war-is-new-the-bid-isn-t"]