[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"$fT7IQkT8v8PYnu5vn4ToHuKLRje8rkMTTzkJP1rUasdc":3},{"data":4},{"id":5,"created":6,"subtitle":7,"preview_text":7,"content_tags":8,"thumbnail_url":9,"publish_date":10,"split_tested":11,"audience":12,"newsletter_list_id":13,"enforce_gated_content":11,"meta_default_description":14,"subject_line":15,"email_capture_popup":16,"platform":12,"authors":17,"title":15,"free_content_html":19,"status":20,"slug":21,"displayed_date":13,"hidden_from_feed":11,"meta_default_title":15,"web_url":22},"post_4999786c-fb9b-4332-aa3d-dbfaf12270c0",1774806203,"I cut 20% on Friday. Here is what the data says happens next.",[],"https:\u002F\u002Fbeehiiv-images-production.s3.amazonaws.com\u002Fuploads\u002Fasset\u002Ffile\u002F7fa82ce1-15c4-4a70-b9bc-e7da37852e00\u002Fcrown_macro_cover__17_.png?t=1774818492",1774864800,false,"both",null,"I cut equity exposure by 20% on Friday. Three models built across 20 years of drawdown data explain what the market is saying right now.","False Floor: The Dip Buyers Are Early",true,[18],"Nicholas Crown","\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> Last Friday, at the close, I reduced equity exposure by roughly 20%. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> Five cross-asset signals made it clear I could not carry that risk into the weekend. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> To pressure-test the decision, I spent the weekend building three separate models across 20 years of drawdown data. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> The results surprised me. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>","confirmed","false-floor-the-dip-buyers-are-early","https:\u002F\u002Fletter.nicholascrown.com\u002Fp\u002Ffalse-floor-the-dip-buyers-are-early"]