[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"$f5mdI95uTODhNQ_3t3YLw9N3JFTUb16ZIGVJl-Cmubjw":3},{"data":4},{"preview_text":5,"web_url":6,"status":7,"subtitle":5,"platform":8,"subject_line":9,"email_capture_popup":10,"enforce_gated_content":11,"publish_date":12,"newsletter_list_id":13,"thumbnail_url":14,"split_tested":11,"meta_default_title":13,"slug":15,"audience":8,"content_tags":16,"free_content_html":17,"id":18,"title":9,"displayed_date":13,"authors":19,"created":21,"hidden_from_feed":11,"meta_default_description":22},"Credit is flashing yellow. The yield curve is confirming.","https:\u002F\u002Fletter.nicholascrown.com\u002Fp\u002Fgrowth-divide-stocks-are-calm-bonds-aren-t","confirmed","both","Growth Divide: Stocks Are Calm, Bonds Aren’t",true,false,1771844400,null,"https:\u002F\u002Fbeehiiv-images-production.s3.amazonaws.com\u002Fuploads\u002Fasset\u002Ffile\u002Fe1c1ac5c-d2db-40f7-a16d-b3916447d86d\u002Fcrown_macro_cover__9_.png?t=1771629469","growth-divide-stocks-are-calm-bonds-aren-t",[],"\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> Good morning. Let’s get into it. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> For months, the trade has felt automatic. Dollar down, gold up, small- and mid-cap up. Rinse and repeat. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> Now, the dollar is catching a bid even when the headlines say it shouldn’t. The tariff sequence was the perfect stress test. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> On Friday, Feb 20, the Supreme Court ruled Trump’s IEEPA-based global tariffs were unlawful, and the dollar initially sold off. But the move didn’t stick. It reversed and finished stronger anyway, even as the administration moved to replace the struck-down IEEPA tariff regime with a new temporary global levy under a different authority. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> At the same time, the 10-year has gone bid. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> Even in private credit, liquidity is getting tighter. Blue Owl (a large private-credit manager) recently limited withdrawals in one of its retail credit vehicles to manage redemptions. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;\">\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:20px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-top:20px;\">\u003Cimg alt=\"\" style=\"margin:0 auto 0 auto;width:100%;\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.beehiiv.com\u002Fcdn-cgi\u002Fimage\u002Ffit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80\u002Fuploads\u002Fasset\u002Ffile\u002F77c9d40a-374d-438c-b8ad-c1d38d2193ef\u002Fimage.png?t=1771791536\">\u003Cdiv style=\"margin:0 auto 0 auto;padding:4px 0px 4px 0px;text-align:center;width:100%;\">\u003Csmall style=\"color:#000000;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;font-style:italic;text-decoration-color:#000000;text-decoration:none;\">\u003Cp>And in public markets, you can see the same thing in HYG\u002FLQD rolling over.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fsmall>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003C\u002Fdiv>","post_15ee7e3e-a770-4f96-b706-e598661f8c83",[20],"Nicholas Crown",1771629092,"A slowdown can start quietly in duration and credit. This report explains the bond-market mechanics, the confirmation signals, and what investors should watch."]