Good morning. Let's get into it.
Nothing in your portfolio is trading on its own fundamentals right now.
Crude in the mid-90s pushed the Fed to show up more hawkish than expected, citing growth and oil directly. The ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan all showed up hawkish, and the dollar got aggressively sold.
I put out a video calling the dollar “mispriced”, citing oil yet again. The dollar bounced back within hours.
DXY rips back after the ECB.
To add to the mayhem, gold fell ~15% from its all-time high. Silver dropped 13% in a single session. Copper got crushed. If you are wondering why the safe-haven playbook stopped working, the answer is one word: superconcentration.
That is when one variable absorbs the entire return cycle. Right now, that variable is energy.
Superconcentration is brutal. But it is also simple. One variable means one framework. Below, I break down exactly how to operate inside it.
In the Pro Edition of Crown Macro, I break this down in full:
Gold: Why the safe haven collapsed during a war
Silver: The defined-risk options structure designed to sit on top of your gold position
Copper: The signal most investors are ignoring that changes the entire read
Equities: The covered call framework for a market going nowhere
EURUSD: The re-entry (our third time this year)
Updated House View and full trade setups
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