[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"$f7EG3Obf3ymp8X64avGzud4CVpevRg_VF5GPzm231S5U":3},{"data":4},{"audience":5,"free_content_html":6,"id":7,"title":8,"created":9,"web_url":10,"content_tags":11,"slug":12,"email_capture_popup":13,"newsletter_list_id":14,"publish_date":15,"authors":16,"enforce_gated_content":18,"meta_default_title":8,"split_tested":18,"status":19,"subtitle":20,"preview_text":20,"meta_default_description":21,"platform":5,"displayed_date":14,"subject_line":8,"thumbnail_url":22,"hidden_from_feed":18},"both","\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> The S&P 500 keeps printing new highs. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> Headlines celebrate “breakouts.” The internet loves it, claiming, “\u003Ci>Stocks only go up!\u003C\u002Fi>” in my comment section. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> And who wouldn’t want to cheer? \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> Most investors feel fully invested by default, not because they made an active decision, but because being long stocks is the baseline state of modern portfolios and retirement savings. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> That’s the surface narrative. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> But my whole line of inquiry started somewhere else. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> I was looking at the S&P priced in \u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:400;\">high-yield currencies\u003C\u002Fspan> (places like the\u003Cb> Mexican peso and Brazilian real)\u003C\u002Fb>, trying to understand how much of the U.S. equity rally was really equity strength, and how much was just the dollar doing the work. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> In those currencies, the S&P didn’t look like it was ripping. In several cases, we actually finished down in 2025, far from the +16% headline. That’s when the question shifted. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> Now, markets don’t exist in a vacuum. Price only has meaning relative to the unit you measure it in. And if changing the currency already altered the story, what happens when you remove fiat from the equation entirely? \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> That’s when the picture changed dramatically. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> In gold terms, U.S. equities are \u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:700;\">\u003Cb>not\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fspan> at all-time highs. They are back at \u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:700;\">\u003Cb>cycle lows\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fspan>, retesting levels last seen in \u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:700;\">\u003Cb>2016\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fspan> and \u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:700;\">\u003Cb>2020\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fspan>. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> In Bitcoin terms, the picture is even more extreme when zooming out. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> The same market that feels like it’s breaking out in dollars is, in \u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:400;\">scarce-asset terms\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:400;\">,\u003C\u002Fspan> still digging out of a hole. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> As always, there’s an opportunity here. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cdiv id=\"what-ill-show-you-in-the-letter\" style=\"padding-bottom:4px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:16px;\">\u003Ch3 style=\"color:#2A2A2A;font-family:'Trebuchet MS','Lucida Grande',Tahoma,sans-serif;font-size:20px;font-weight:normal;line-height:1.25;margin:0;text-align:left;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:700;\">\u003Cb>What I’ll show you in the Letter\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh3>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:37px;padding-right:27px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cul style=\"color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:24px;list-style-type:disc;margin:0px 0px 0px 25px;padding:0;\">\u003Cli style=\"margin:10px 0px 0px 0px;\">\u003Cp style=\"text-align:left;\"> The chart that makes U.S. stock “all-time highs” \u003Cb>disappear\u003C\u002Fb>. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli style=\"margin:10px 0px 0px 0px;\">\u003Cp style=\"text-align:left;\"> Why the first warning didn’t come from gold, it came from \u003Cb>foreign exchange.\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli style=\"margin:10px 0px 0px 0px;\">\u003Cp style=\"text-align:left;\"> What it means when stocks are strong in dollars but \u003Cb>weak in everything else.\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli style=\"margin:10px 0px 0px 0px;\">\u003Cp style=\"text-align:left;\"> Why this \u003Cb>doesn’t require selling stocks\u003C\u002Fb> and why most people get that wrong. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli style=\"margin:10px 0px 0px 0px;\">\u003Cp style=\"text-align:left;\"> The \u003Cb>exact positioning\u003C\u002Fb> we’re using to navigate what comes next in real assets \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\u003C\u002Ful>\u003C\u002Fdiv>","post_f59bf4af-db2a-40be-9b12-dbeb861d30c0","Sleight of Hand: The Market Isn’t At All-Time Highs",1768592745,"https:\u002F\u002Fletter.nicholascrown.com\u002Fp\u002Fthe-market-isnt-at-all-time-highs",[],"the-market-isnt-at-all-time-highs",true,null,1768820423,[17],"Nicholas Crown",false,"confirmed","Stocks look strong in dollars. They don’t in anything else.","The S&P looks strong in USD, but weak in gold and other scarce assets. A macro framework for understanding real vs nominal market gains.","https:\u002F\u002Fbeehiiv-images-production.s3.amazonaws.com\u002Fuploads\u002Fasset\u002Ffile\u002Fd8bebb77-82f0-4708-9592-458f6f1321f5\u002Fcrown_macro_cover__1_.png?t=1768667239"]