[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"$f73DGjLfjY0aomItvRs21sAfys_oStmc5yyS-hXncqHo":3},{"data":4},{"web_url":5,"enforce_gated_content":6,"publish_date":7,"newsletter_list_id":8,"slug":9,"split_tested":6,"free_content_html":10,"id":11,"subject_line":12,"audience":13,"email_capture_popup":6,"meta_default_description":14,"title":12,"status":15,"created":16,"hidden_from_feed":6,"platform":13,"displayed_date":8,"authors":17,"content_tags":19,"subtitle":20,"meta_default_title":8,"preview_text":20,"thumbnail_url":21},"https:\u002F\u002Fletter.nicholascrown.com\u002Fp\u002Fthe-most-crowded-trade",false,1767610828,null,"the-most-crowded-trade","\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> Most investors think the biggest risk right now is being under-invested. The bigger risk is being \u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:700;\">\u003Cb>too comfortable\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fspan> with the most crowded trade in the world: passively long stocks. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> Let me be clear: being long stocks isn’t wrong. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> It’s just the \u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:700;\">\u003Cb>least asymmetric bet\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fspan> on the board. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;\">\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:20px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-top:20px;\">\u003Cdiv style=\"margin:0 auto 0 auto;padding:4px 0px 4px 0px;text-align:center;width:100%;\">\u003Csmall style=\"color:#000000;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;font-style:italic;text-decoration-color:#000000;text-decoration:none;\">\u003Cp>The S&P 500 is increasingly a top-10 trade.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fsmall>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> A few simple facts explain why (we’ve touched on in previous Letters): \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:37px;padding-right:27px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cul style=\"color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:24px;list-style-type:disc;margin:0px 0px 0px 25px;padding:0;\">\u003Cli style=\"margin:10px 0px 0px 0px;\">\u003Cp style=\"text-align:left;\"> A \u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:700;\">\u003Cb>handful of stocks now drive most of the market’s returns\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fspan>: the index is far more concentrated than it looks. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli style=\"margin:10px 0px 0px 0px;\">\u003Cp style=\"text-align:left;\"> Market volatility sits near the \u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:700;\">\u003Cb>low end of its historical range\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fspan>, even after a strong multi-year run. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli style=\"margin:10px 0px 0px 0px;\">\u003Cp style=\"text-align:left;\"> At the same time, \u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:700;\">\u003Cb>downside protection remains expensive\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fspan>, meaning the market still assigns meaningful probability to tail risk. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli style=\"margin:10px 0px 0px 0px;\">\u003Cp style=\"text-align:left;\"> When stress arrives, \u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:700;\">\u003Cb>correlations tend to rise\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fspan>, not fall: diversification shows up \u003Ci>after\u003C\u002Fi> it’s needed most. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\u003C\u002Ful>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> Put differently: upside is incremental. Downside remains nonlinear (that’s not a good thing). \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:700;\">\u003Cb>That’s not a doom and gloom forecast.\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:400;\">It’s a \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:400;\">payoff profile\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:400;\">.\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:400;\">The real opportunities right now aren’t directional.\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> Defined-risk spreads, convex setups, and bounded exposure offer something stocks don’t: better payoff for the same uncertainty. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:700;\">\u003Cb>If you’ve been “just long,” this Letter will explain how to pick better payoffs.\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cdiv id=\"this-is-a-crown-macro-special-editi\" style=\"padding-bottom:4px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:16px;\">\u003Ch2 style=\"color:#2A2A2A;font-family:'Trebuchet MS','Lucida Grande',Tahoma,sans-serif;font-size:24px;font-weight:normal;line-height:1.5;margin:0;text-align:left;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:700;\">\u003Cb>This Is a Crown Macro Special Edition\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cstyle>\n  p span[style*=\"font-size\"] { line-height: 1.6; }\n\u003C\u002Fstyle>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Cp style=\"color:#2D2D2D;color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;\"> Think of this one as a reference note you’ll want to keep. It lays out the core framework behind how I think about asymmetry, structure, and payoff shape, so you can come back to it the next time you’re evaluating risk. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cdiv id=\"what-this-special-edition-covers\" style=\"padding-bottom:4px;padding-left:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-top:16px;\">\u003Ch3 style=\"color:#2A2A2A;font-family:'Trebuchet MS','Lucida Grande',Tahoma,sans-serif;font-size:20px;font-weight:normal;line-height:1.25;margin:0;text-align:left;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:700;\">\u003Cb>What This Special Edition Covers:\u003C\u002Fb>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh3>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:37px;padding-right:27px;padding-top:12px;\">\u003Col start=\"1\" style=\"color:var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important;font-family:'Helvetica',Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:24px;list-style-type:decimal;margin:0px 0px 0px 25px;padding:0;\">\u003Cli style=\"margin:10px 0px 0px 0px;\">\u003Cp style=\"text-align:left;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:400;\">The Hidden Problem With Being “Just Long Stocks”\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli style=\"margin:10px 0px 0px 0px;\">\u003Cp style=\"text-align:left;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:400;\">Structure Before Thesis\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli style=\"margin:10px 0px 0px 0px;\">\u003Cp style=\"text-align:left;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:400;\">Where Asymmetry Actually Comes From\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli style=\"margin:10px 0px 0px 0px;\">\u003Cp style=\"text-align:left;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:400;\">Two Current Examples of Asymmetry (Not Predictions)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli style=\"margin:10px 0px 0px 0px;\">\u003Cp style=\"text-align:left;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:400;\">Why Being Right Still Loses Money\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli style=\"margin:10px 0px 0px 0px;\">\u003Cp style=\"text-align:left;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight:400;\">Passing the Asymmetry Test\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\u003C\u002Fol>\u003C\u002Fdiv>","post_14994fdc-0df8-46df-9760-43168c81bfa4","The Most Crowded Trade: The S&P Feels Calm. The Downside Isn’t.","both","Why passively long stocks is a crowded, linear bet, plus structure-first risk design, four asymmetry sources, real examples, and a setup filter.","confirmed",1767296402,[18],"Nicholas Crown",[],"Why “just long” is underpaying you, and what to do instead.","https:\u002F\u002Fbeehiiv-images-production.s3.amazonaws.com\u002Fuploads\u002Fasset\u002Ffile\u002F93db089c-35d1-49a1-b4f6-482b03855416\u002Fcrown_macro_cover__1_.png?t=1767310297"]