Good morning. Let’s get into it.
I see the same pattern over and over when I onboard new clients.
QQQ. NVDA. Some mix of large-cap tech and software exposure. Household tickers.
What I never see are the names I’m going to discuss today.
That is not because clients did anything wrong. They had an exceptional run.
The issue is that the “tech trade” has stalled. The hero names are no longer delivering incremental leadership. They are trading sideways at best.
And the indexes? They’re masking what is actually working underneath. Very few investors have bothered to look under the hood.
Tech today is a broad collection of very different functions, all lumped together under a single label. Some parts are breaking down. Others are still driving returns. What we are seeing in price is not a rejection of AI. It is a shift in where AI spending shows up.
The mistake at this stage is rotating away from tech wholesale (as I’ve been tempted to do), instead of isolating the narrow set of components that are still doing the work.
Because this slice of tech is still showing more momentum than entire sectors elsewhere in the market.
If you know where to look, the rotation is already obvious. It requires breaking apart the index and doing single-stock sorting.
Today, I lay out the ownership framework that separates what is stalling from what is still driving tech in 2026.
In the Pro Edition of Crown Macro, I break this down in full:
Where tech leadership is actually showing up in price
Why broad tech indexes now mask internal breakdowns
The specific bottlenecks that are carrying performance
Why legacy portfolios rarely own these exposures
A clean, rules-based way to express this rotation
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