Mar 30, 2026
False Floor: The Dip Buyers Are Early
I cut 20% on Friday. Here is what the data says happens next.
Nicholas Crown
Last Friday, at the close, I reduced equity exposure by roughly 20%.
Five cross-asset signals made it clear I could not carry that risk into the weekend.
To pressure-test the decision, I spent the weekend building three separate models across 20 years of drawdown data.
The results surprised me.
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