Performance
Introduction
This is the first performance review of The Crown Macro Letter, covering the period from inception on December 22, 2025 through June 26, 2026. The next review will cover the second half of 2026.
The Crown Macro Letter is published by Nicholas Crown Enterprises LLC. This review presents hypothetical model results derived from ideas published in the letter.
Results
Over the review period:
- Non-options ideas produced a modeled compounded return of +37.7% across 20 closed trades. Win rate was 68%.
- Options ideas produced a modeled compounded return of +47.4% across 15 closed trades. Win rate was 67%.
- Average holding period across all closed trades was 12 days.
Computation methodology
Performance is tracked on the trade ideas published in The Crown Macro Letter and resolved during the review period. A trade is counted as closed when the letter has published an exit, a stop level has been hit, or the position has otherwise been called done in the letter. Positions still open as of June 26, 2026 are not included in this review and will be reported in the next review when they resolve.
Ideas that did not carry an unambiguous published entry and exit are excluded, even when the resulting move was favorable.
Each idea is weighted by a risk-size assigned at the time of publication, on a discrete grid of 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, or 1.0. A full-risk-size position is counted in full, and smaller positions are scaled down in proportion. Risk-size reflects conviction, relative volatility, capital constraints, and the prevailing risk environment at the time of the call. Because available capital and risk appetite differ from one reader to the next, another participant sizing the same idea would arrive at different outcomes.
Positions entered or exited in tranches are recorded as a single trade with a blended profit and loss, weighted by the size of each tranche. The entry date is the date of the first entry and the exit date is the date of the final exit. Risk-size is set at the time of the first entry and is not adjusted for subsequent scaling.
Non-options and options are reported separately because option returns move in multiples and would distort the non-options figure if combined. Non-options covers equities, ETFs, futures, foreign exchange, and relative-value pairs. Results are compounded within each column across the period, sequenced by exit date. We do not publish a blended figure because the appropriate weighting between the two columns depends on each reader's capital, risk tolerance, and use of options.
Non-options trades compound sequentially at full stake, meaning each trade's return is applied to the running equity from prior trades. Options compound on a 15% premium fraction per trade. This is a risk management constraint. We cap each options idea at 15% of the running equity to avoid over-committing capital to any single premium-at-risk position, consistent with how an institutional book would size a directional options sleeve. A full -100% on the position therefore costs 15% of the line, not the entire line, and gains scale on the same fraction. For defined-risk short premium structures such as credit spreads, the 15% fraction is applied to the structure's maximum loss rather than the premium received.
Entry and exit levels are reported as close to actual fills as possible using mid-market at the time of publication. For options, achievable fills can differ materially from mid-market depending on strike, liquidity, and timing, and realized results will be lower than the modeled figures shown here. Exits include stops hit, targets reached, and discretionary closes called in the letter.
Average holding period figures reflect a simple mean across closed trades, unweighted by risk-size.
The complete trade ledger follows and lists every closed trade and the resulting return.
Cumulative Compounded Returns vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Hypothetical model results. SPY shown for reference only.
Published Trade Ledger
Compounded in close-date order on risk-weighted returns. Non-options chain at full stake; options compound on a fixed premium fraction per trade, so a -100% only costs that slice. Non-options compound at full stake sequentially. Options compound on a 15% premium fraction per trade, reflecting that only the premium is ever at risk, so a full -100% costs that fraction, not the whole line.
| Date Closed | Trade | Class | Return | Risk Sizing | Weighted Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/12/2026 | Gold/Silver | Futures | -5.90% | 50.00% | -2.90% |
| 2/23/2026 | RSP/SPY | Equities | 6.40% | 100.00% | 6.40% |
| 3/6/2026 | XAR/ITA | Equities | -0.10% | 50.00% | 0.00% |
| 3/9/2026 | EURUSD | FX | 1.60% | 100.00% | 1.60% |
| 3/9/2026 | Crude Oil | Options | 338.30% | 100.00% | 338.30% |
| 3/13/2026 | Russell 2000 | Futures | 3.50% | 50.00% | 1.70% |
| 3/13/2026 | EURUSD | FX | 1.30% | 100.00% | 1.30% |
| 3/13/2026 | Gold/Bitcoin | Futures | -3.50% | 50.00% | -1.80% |
| 3/31/2026 | EURUSD | FX | 1.30% | 100.00% | 1.30% |
| 4/10/2026 | EURUSD | FX | -0.80% | 100.00% | -0.80% |
| 5/1/2026 | SPY | Options | -100.00% | 50.00% | -50.00% |
| 5/4/2026 | TLT | Options | -100.00% | 25.00% | -25.00% |
| 5/15/2026 | Copper | Commodities | 4.10% | 100.00% | 4.10% |
| 5/15/2026 | Silver | Options | -100.00% | 100.00% | -100.00% |
| 5/27/2026 | TSM | Equities | 3.90% | 100.00% | 3.90% |
| 5/29/2026 | TLT | Equities | 2.50% | 100.00% | 2.50% |
| 6/2/2026 | Copper | Commodities | 2.00% | 100.00% | 2.00% |
| 6/5/2026 | GLD | Options | -100.00% | 25.00% | -25.00% |
| 6/5/2026 | DOCU | Options | 11.40% | 50.00% | 5.70% |
| 6/9/2026 | GLD | Options | 72.90% | 100.00% | 72.90% |
| 6/12/2026 | Copper | Commodities | 1.70% | 100.00% | 1.70% |
| 6/15/2026 | Sector Rotation Relative Value | Equities | 1.40% | 100.00% | 1.40% |
| 6/15/2026 | META | Options | 38.10% | 50.00% | 19.10% |
| 6/15/2026 | FIVN | Options | 13.60% | 100.00% | 13.60% |
| 6/17/2026 | SLV | Options | -100.00% | 100.00% | -100.00% |
| 6/18/2026 | Gold | Commodities | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 6/22/2026 | IWM | Options | 46.20% | 100.00% | 46.20% |
| 6/23/2026 | Space sector Relative Value | Equities | 9.50% | 100.00% | 9.50% |
| 6/23/2026 | Copper | Commodities | -2.60% | 50.00% | -1.30% |
| 6/23/2026 | MSFT | Options | 9.90% | 100.00% | 9.90% |
| 6/23/2026 | GLD | Options | 61.70% | 100.00% | 61.70% |
| 6/24/2026 | GLD | Options | 171.60% | 50.00% | 85.80% |
| 6/24/2026 | MU | Options | 3.50% | 100.00% | 3.50% |
| 6/25/2026 | MU | Equities | -3.00% | 25.00% | -0.80% |
| 6/26/2026 | Sector Rotation Relative Value | Equities | 3.20% | 100.00% | 3.20% |
Our non-options returns (e.g. equities, futures, ETFs) over the period is 37.7%.
Our options return for the same period is 47.4%.
The return of the S&P 500 over the same period is 7.5%.
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Disclaimer: The Crown Macro Letter is an impersonal research publication published by Nicholas Crown Enterprises LLC. This review presents hypothetical model results derived from trade ideas published in the Letter and is provided for transparency. It is not an investment account, managed fund, or audited track record, and does not represent the results of any actual portfolio or client account.
The figures represent modeled returns on individual published ideas, weighted using a risk-size of 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, or 1.0. Risk-size reflects conviction and the risk environment at the time of publication and does not represent a dollar amount invested. Results do not reflect transaction costs, financing, slippage, taxes, or the cash management, diversification, and risk limits applicable to an actual portfolio. Option results assume mid-market fills, which may differ materially from achievable execution.
Actual results will vary based on fills, liquidity, entry and exit timing, position sizing, and other factors. Compounded figures depend on the modeling assumptions described above, including the 15% premium fraction applied to options positions. Different assumptions would produce different results.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Hypothetical or model results do not represent actual trading. Nothing presented here constitutes personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or a solicitation. Investing and trading involve substantial risk, including possible loss of principal and, for options positions, the entire premium paid.
